As we move through Q2 of FY’26, the Indian flat steel market is flashing warning signs that can’t be ignored:

- Inventory levels remain elevated
- Prices continue to correct, with ₹100–₹800/ton declines across product categories. Yet, buyers are largely on the sidelines, waiting and watching
- Liquidity stress and cautious sentiment are weighing on the trade ecosystem. Purchase cycles are slowing, with most deals now leaning on deferred or more flexible terms

This isn’t a short-term fluctuation. It points to a persistent imbalance between supply-side optimism and demand-side pull, between inventory buildup and working capital strain, and between market expectations and commercial reality.

Near-Term Outlook? 

The short-term market trajectory will likely depend on a combination of post-monsoon demand trends and export absorption. In the absence of strong triggers:
- Prices may see a gradual softness
- Inventory-led volatility could persist into H2
- Sales volumes, realizations, and EBITDA margins for both mills and downstream players may come under moderate pressure

What’s needed now? A Call for Recalibration

With demand signals faltering and inventories rising, market participants across the value chain are likely to face downward revisions in sales volume forecasts, revenue guidance, and EBITDA expectations. In a dynamic market, adaptability, not assumption, is key. Staying responsive and data-driven will help businesses navigate uncertainty.

The playbook for FY’26 requires a proactive reset based on market-driven intelligence. It’s time for mills, distributors, and value chain players to revisit pricing strategies, rationalize inventory levels, and strengthen cash flow controls and deal structures.